Study: Severe Storms Likely to Hit Wider Areas, Cities
2022-01-10
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1A new study suggests that severe storms are likely to start affecting wider areas that include cities like New York, Boston, Beijing and Tokyo.
2An international research team predicts that big atmospheric storms called tropical cyclones could move further to the north or south.
3It said this is because of the effects of planet-warming climate change.
4The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes tropical cyclones as "organized systems of clouds and thunderstorms" that develop over bodies of water.
5Major tropical cyclones are declared either hurricanes or typhoons, depending on where the storms happen.
6In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used.
7In the Northwest Pacific, the storms are called typhoons.
8The researchers suggest that hurricanes and typhoons could start appearing farther north in the northern half of the world and farther south in the southern half of the world.
9Those areas contain larger population centers that traditionally are not struck by large hurricanes or typhoons.
10Joshua Studholme is a physicist at Yale University's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences.
11He was the lead writer of the study, which recently appeared in Nature Geoscience.
12Studholme said in a statement the study "represents an important, under-estimated risk of climate change."
13"This research predicts that the 21st century's tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case on Earth for the last 3 million years," he added.
14The researchers note that tropical cyclones form close to the equator in warm, tropical oceans.
15This usually happens away from the intense effects of the jet streams - strong wind paths that circle the planet.
16But the study suggests that warming climates on Earth will create smaller temperature differences between the equator and the poles.
17In the summer months this could cause the jet stream to weaken or split.
18If this were to happen, it could open "a window in the mid-latitudes for tropical cyclones to form and intensify," the researchers said.
19The team reached the findings by examining computer models of warm climates from Earth's distant past.
20They also used satellite observation and a range of weather and climate estimates.
21The researchers said their models estimated that, during periods with warmer climates, tropical cyclones formed and intensified at higher latitudes.
22These periods of warm weather include the Eocene, which was 56 to 34 million years ago, and Pliocene, 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago.
23Alexey Fedorov is a professor of oceanic and atmospheric sciences at Yale.
24He was a co-writer of the study.
25He said in a statement that there are still "large uncertainties" about how tropical cyclones will change in the future.
26However, he added that "multiple lines of evidence" suggest more tropical cyclones are likely to happen in mid-latitudes,
27"even if the total frequency of tropical cyclones does not increase."
28One leader of the research was Kerry Emanuel, a climate specialist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
29Another recent study led by Emanuel suggests that the North Atlantic experienced an increase in hurricanes over the last century.
30That study, published last month in Nature Communications, used historical records to build computer models to create climate conditions for the last 150 years.
31Emanuel said he added hurricane "seeds" - conditions that could produce a storm - throughout the models to see how many would lead to storms.
32The results showed that the number of "intense" Atlantic storms would become more frequent as world temperatures rose.
33I'm Bryan Lynn.
1A new study suggests that severe storms are likely to start affecting wider areas that include cities like New York, Boston, Beijing and Tokyo. 2An international research team predicts that big atmospheric storms called tropical cyclones could move further to the north or south. It said this is because of the effects of planet-warming climate change. 3The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes tropical cyclones as "organized systems of clouds and thunderstorms" that develop over bodies of water. 4Major tropical cyclones are declared either hurricanes or typhoons, depending on where the storms happen. In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. In the Northwest Pacific, the storms are called typhoons. 5The researchers suggest that hurricanes and typhoons could start appearing farther north in the northern half of the world and farther south in the southern half of the world. Those areas contain larger population centers that traditionally are not struck by large hurricanes or typhoons. 6Joshua Studholme is a physicist at Yale University's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences. He was the lead writer of the study, which recently appeared in Nature Geoscience. 7Studholme said in a statement the study "represents an important, under-estimated risk of climate change." 8"This research predicts that the 21st century's tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case on Earth for the last 3 million years," he added. 9The researchers note that tropical cyclones form close to the equator in warm, tropical oceans. This usually happens away from the intense effects of the jet streams - strong wind paths that circle the planet. 10But the study suggests that warming climates on Earth will create smaller temperature differences between the equator and the poles. In the summer months this could cause the jet stream to weaken or split. If this were to happen, it could open "a window in the mid-latitudes for tropical cyclones to form and intensify," the researchers said. 11The team reached the findings by examining computer models of warm climates from Earth's distant past. They also used satellite observation and a range of weather and climate estimates. 12The researchers said their models estimated that, during periods with warmer climates, tropical cyclones formed and intensified at higher latitudes. These periods of warm weather include the Eocene, which was 56 to 34 million years ago, and Pliocene, 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago. 13Alexey Fedorov is a professor of oceanic and atmospheric sciences at Yale. He was a co-writer of the study. He said in a statement that there are still "large uncertainties" about how tropical cyclones will change in the future. 14However, he added that "multiple lines of evidence" suggest more tropical cyclones are likely to happen in mid-latitudes, "even if the total frequency of tropical cyclones does not increase." 15One leader of the research was Kerry Emanuel, a climate specialist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Another recent study led by Emanuel suggests that the North Atlantic experienced an increase in hurricanes over the last century. 16That study, published last month in Nature Communications, used historical records to build computer models to create climate conditions for the last 150 years. 17Emanuel said he added hurricane "seeds" - conditions that could produce a storm - throughout the models to see how many would lead to storms. The results showed that the number of "intense" Atlantic storms would become more frequent as world temperatures rose. 18I'm Bryan Lynn. 19Bryan Lynn wrote this story for VOA Learning English, based on reports from Yale University, Reuters, NOAA and Nature Geoscience. 20We want to hear from you. Write to us in the Comments section, and visit our Facebook page. 21___________________________________________________________ 22Words in This Story 23hurricane - n. a violent storm with very strong winds; a powerful ocean storm with wind speeds measured at 119 kilometers an hour or above 24typhoon - n. a powerful storm with very strong winds (similar to a hurricane) 25occur - v. to happen; to take place 26range -n. a group or collection of things that share some similarity 27latitude - n. the distance of a place north or south of the equator 28poles - n. parts of the Earth that are furthest north and south 29uncertain - adj. not sure or not able to decide about something 30frequent - adj. happening often